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Opta supercomputer delivers new relegation prediction for West Ham after huge win for Tottenham

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A bad weekend got an awful lot worse for West Ham United on Sunday night as relegation rivals Tottenham recorded a statement win over Aston Villa.

Hours after West Ham’s chances of getting relegated from the Premier League increased following their 3-0 defeat to Brentford, Spurs made it even worse.

On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you about staying up now? 👀

West Ham players look dejected after losing to Brentford.
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images

Robert De Zerbi’s side won 2-1 at Villa to overtake West Ham in the Premier League table. The Hammers are now one point adrift of safety with only three games left to play. 

As ever, Hammers News have tracked what the famous Opta supercomputer makes of the Premier League’s relegation battle. 

West Ham given 75.09% chance of relegation

Following West Ham’s defeat to Brentford, the analytics run by Opta’s infamous machine handed the Hammers a 48.46% chance of getting relegated.

That figure now stands at a huge 75.09%.  

Spurs, meanwhile, are given a 22.48% chance of the drop. 

What a sorry old mess 😪 How have we let it slip AGAIN?!

A graphic showing the Premier League table positions 14-18 after 35 games in the 2025/26 season. Image show Tomas Soucek looking dejected while playing for West Ham United against Brentford.
Credit: Getty Images/Julian Finney

While Nuno Espirito Santo has long predicted that the relegation battle will go down to the final day, this did feel like a pivotal weekend.

West Ham have lost their advantage and what hurts most is the fact they didn’t really put up that much of a fight in either of their last two away games.

Nuno Espirito Santo - West Ham United v Everton - Premier League
Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images

Eventually settling for a point at Crystal Palace has proven costly, perhaps more than one would have thought a few days ago.

The rather tame way in which West Ham lost at Brentford looked alarming at the time and the Spurs result makes it worse.

It is now a huge fight for Nuno to get the team back on track. Nothing has been decided yet, but this was a set of results that threaten to take the belief out of the side.

There is not much time to react and some very difficult games to come. The mood here in east London is low and a lot needs to change for that to improve.