How West Ham’s crucial Man City point changes the relegation battle landscape

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West Ham have changed the landscape of the Premier League relegation battle with their surprise point against Man City – and what they now need to stay up.

Make no mistake about it, West Ham were massive outsiders to get anything from the game against Man City on Saturday night given the history between the two sides.

Manchester City had won the last seven in a row against the Irons and 19 of the last 22 in all competitions.

In fact the Hammers tasted victory against City just once in the last 11 years – on penalties at the Etihad in the League Cup under David Moyes back in 2021.

West Ham now just three wins from Premier League survival?

So the magnitude of their hard-earned point in a 1-1 draw against Pep Guardiola’s side cannot be underestimated.

The result – and manner of West Ham’s spirited display – sent a serious message to Nottingham Forest, Spurs and Leeds.

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Mavropanos' performance is the best by a West Ham defender since… ?

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In the four-way battle between those sides to avoid joining Burnley and Wolves in the Championship, the Irons have always had a much higher percentage chance of relegation from Opta’s supercomputer.

That was slashed after West Ham’s point against Man City as it changed the entire landscape of the relegation battle.

So what must happen for the Hammers to survive now?

The point lifted Nuno Espirito Santo’s side out of the relegation zone for the first time since November and for only the third occasion all season.

Now the aim is to make sure they stay there when the remaining eight games are done in May.

First order of business is a watching brief for Sunday’s Premier League games involving Leeds, Spurs and Nottingham Forest.

West Ham are now on 29 points, one above Forest, level with Spurs and just two behind Leeds.

Hammers could go four points clear of relegation zone next week

Forest welcome Fulham to the City Ground on Sunday afternoon and Spurs – who have a major player availability crisis on their hands, especially in defence – go to Anfield to face Liverpool.

Leeds are away at Palace, who have started to find some form again.

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In a perfect world, West Ham obviously want three defeats for their survival rivals.

Forest will fancy their chances at home against Fulham following their own 2-2 draw with Man City last time out.

Fulham are coasting somewhat now and may lack motivation against a side fighting for their lives.

So there is every chance the Tricky Trees get at least a point to push the Hammers back into the relegation zone.

Spurs will be lucky to escape from Liverpool with anything other than a heavy defeat.

Defeat for Leeds on the road at Selhurst Park is also realistic.

If Sunday’s results work out in West Ham’s favour, then the points target for survival will likely be in line with the predictions of many analysts.

A top BBC Sport analyst did a deep dive on the remaining fixtures in the relegation battle and 30 years of survival statistics and stated West Ham can stay up with 38 points.

Should results work out for the Hammers on Sunday, that total looks about right.

So it looks like West Ham now need three victories from the last eight games to secure survival.

It is next week that Nuno’s side can really take a huge step towards safety.

Spurs welcome Forest to north London for what looks like a relegation 12-pointer, never mind six.

At the same time on the same day, West Ham go to Aston Villa, whose form has been up and down of late.

Leeds will have played Brentford the night before.

A win for West Ham at Villa could theoretically put Nuno’s side clear of the relegation zone depending on results.

The Hammers know points will be dropped either way when Spurs host Forest.

And by then West Ham could potentially find themselves above Forest, Tottenham and Leeds and four points clear of the drop zone going into a two-week international break.

Nuno’s side must then aim to pick up the wins needed from a kinder run of games, on paper at least, against Wolves, Palace, Everton, Brentford – an Arsenal side who may have already won the title – Newcastle and Leeds.

West Ham’s home game against Leeds on the final day of the season has long been billed a relegation decider.

But if West Ham play their cards right in the coming weeks, they could already be safe by then.

Relegation run-in remaining fixtures: