West Ham United have sometimes put in performances worthy of a result they did not get, based on the Premier League’s xG (expected goals) metric.
Quite how much stock one puts in xG in a Premier League era defined by the chaos of set-pieces – something West Ham are dreadful at defending against – and long throws is up for debate.
Indeed, some may brush the notion of xG, a statistical measurement that assigns a value to a shot—ranging from 0 to 1—based on the historical likelihood of that specific chance resulting in a goal, off entirely.
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Still, it can sometimes be interesting when assessing a performance. If a team racks up a better xG than their opponents and loses the game anyway, then it speaks to poor finishing rather than it being a terrible display as a whole.
With that in mind, Hammers News looks back at every game that West Ham have won on xG this season, using the official statistics on the Premier League website.
1) Nottingham Forest 0-3 West Ham (xG: 0.73 – 2.42)
This isn’t much of a surprise.
A rampant West Ham smashed relegation rivals Nottingham Forest – then managed by Nuno Espirito Santo – at the City Ground in August to record their first win of the season.
The Irons had to wait until the final six minutes of the game to score but they dominated the contest and that was reflected in the xG.
2) Everton 1-1 West Ham United (xG: 0.73 – 1.19)
Nuno’s first game in charge of West Ham saw them head to the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time and while the Toffees took the lead through Michael Keane, West Ham did respond.
Jarrod Bowen levelled things up and the xG suggests West Ham were in fact the better team.
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3) West Ham 3-1 Newcastle United (xG: 1.75 – 0.52)
An early goal from Jacob Murphy threatened to destroy a Hammers side low on confidence, but West Ham were brilliant against Newcastle in November and rightly deserved their three points.
4) West Ham 3-2 Burnley (xG: 3.02 – 1.06)
Back in November, West Ham came from behind to beat Burnley in a game that looked like a must-win even that early into the season.
The xG would certainly suggest they were worthy winners, even if it was tighter than it should have been based on their metrics.
5) Tottenham 1-2 West Ham (xG: 1.44 – 2.85)
The most important win of the season yet as Callum Wilson’s late goal saw West Ham deservedly beat rivals Tottenham.
It could be the result that eventually relegates Spurs and the Irons were good value for it.
Optimist or Realist? Share your number and defend it in the comments
6) West Ham 3-1 Sunderland (xG: 1.52 – 0.67)
Following that huge win up with a fine performance against Sunderland was just what the doctor ordered.
West Ham were brilliant against the Black Cats, even if they scored more goals than the quality of their chances suggests they should have done. The absolute rocket that Mateus Fernandes scored probably accounts for that!
7) West Ham 1-1 Manchester United (xG: 1.11 – 0.57)
Manchester United broke West Ham hearts back in mid-February when Benjamin Sesko’s late goal earned the Red Devils a dramatic draw.
It remains to be seen just how costly that is but the xG suggests that West Ham were much better than their opponents – who were the Premier League’s form team at the time.
8) West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth (xG: 3.27 – 0.65)
Another hugely frustrating draw which may prove Nuno’s undoing towards the end of the season.
West Ham did more than enough to beat the Cherries in late February but could not find a way through.
9) Liverpool 5-2 West Ham (xG: 1.84 – 1.86)
Yes, West Ham did amass a better xG than Liverpool in their 5-2 defeat at Anfield, which perhaps exposes the folly of the data in the current climate.
Still, they clearly created some decent chances from open play and it’s further proof that West Ham’s dreadful defending from set-pieces is costing them dearly.
10) Fulham 0-1 West Ham (xG: 0.89 – 1.09)
There was not much in West Ham United’s 1-0 win over Fulham in early March, with Crysencio Summerville pouncing upon a defensive mistake after good work from Jarrod Bowen.
Still, as the data above would suggest, the Hammers slightly edged the contest and deserved the win.
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